Crazy Airfares!

[artnbarb]

OK, I'm playing around with our 2017 itinerary. We'd like to visit Ireland, then thought we could fly to Italy. We're still not sure when we're going, but the idea of going to Ireland in early October for +/- 2 weeks, then spending a few weeks in Italy, then taking a transatlantic cruise home is enticing. I'm doing this research early because IF we wanted to use FF miles you need to book early in order to get the best/most schedule choices, and I think you can book 11 months out, so we would need to book in September for October 2017. (Correct me if I'm wrong about that timetable)

So - I decided to play around with different flight scenarios to see what itinerairies were available on American Airlines, which is where we have FF miles. I used October 2016 dates just to get an idea, and I realize that a lot can change in a year, but that's not the point.

First I tried Tampa - Dublin, then Dublin - Rome, and Rome - Tampa, (obviously not cruising back!), and the fare was about $1750 per person.

Then I tried Tampa - Dublin and Rome - Tampa, thinking I could use FF miles, or a budget airline for the Dublin - Rome leg - and the price was over $3000 per person!!!

And finally I tried Tampa - Dublin, then Dublin - Rome, planning for the cruise back to Tampa, and the cost was $760 per person!!! Yes, SEVEN HUNDRED SIXTY!

Again, I was using 2016 dates, so this is for travel 4 months from now. Planner that I am I would NEVER wait until this late to book my flights, but I guess all those articles really are correct when they say that's when you get the best airfare. I certainly can't imagine getting a better rate than $760 flying from Tampa to Dublin and then on to Rome. Maybe all my far-in-advance planning isn't such a good idea after all.

 

[Andrew]

Yes, four months is often good. This is a one-way fare? I think I can do better than that: JFK-Milan is often a cheap route, even one-way, and it can be worth it to check home-New York plus JFK-Milan as separate bookings; they don't give proportional fares with an extra leg. For Aug. 10, the default date that Kayak is giving today, I'm getting:

Tampa-LaGuardia $82 Delta non-stop, in the morning with time to change airports
JFK-Milan $321 on Delta or $323 on American, either non-stop.

So just over $400 in airfare to Milan, around $35 for an Uber between airports, then either a low-cost Milan-Rome flight or train walk-up fare of €89 or around €36 taking a risk with a non-changeable advance booking. Or something else if you're first going someplace other than Rome.

Where airfares are really crazy: there was a comparable fare JFK-Milan via Atlanta. I tried Atlanta-Milan, and to get a fare in the $400s you needed to do an Atlanta-LaGuardia round trip to get BACK TO ATLANTA and board the flight to Milan.

 

[Andrew]

As I look more closely and see that Dublin is an essential part of the trip, the calculation changes, but it could still be useful to try pricing separately with a break in New York.

Another thing to note is that in 2017 I think Norwegian Air is planning to have New York-Rome non-stops, with some fares around $200 one-way, but with ancillary charges for things such as checked baggage, seat assignments, and food and drink.

 

[artnbarb]

Hopefully I can slow down and wait for the right airfare and itinerary. I'm so used to having my airfare book months and months early, and I'm not sure whether that was EVER a good strategy. The real problem is that if I want to use FF miles I will need to book 11 months out, or as close to that as I can manage. which menas I have to do a lot of research and make a lot of decisions before then!