Would you get one of the first vaccines if it meant you could travel internationally?

[joe]

Whether countries themselves make this mandatory remains to be seen. Interesting times ahead for international travel.

If the decision will be left solely in the hands of the airlines, their considerations will be based primarily on what generates greater revenue for them. Who knows, we might see flights only for vaccinated passengers, and flights for others who will still not want to be vaccinated, until further experience with the vaccine accumulates, or that have not had access yet to the vaccine. This second group might be large enough that airlines will not want to lose them. The rush to get back to routine and get travel restarted might keep several flying options open at the beginning. Airlines might adapt in order to get as many travelers back as possible - as long as things are not yet regulated by governments.

 

[wco81]

One consideration is that if you want to be vaccinated say in Feb or March, because it takes about 2 months to fully raise an immune response, you may not necessarily have a choice on which vaccine to get.

Sounds like the Astra Zeneca/Oxford vaccine has the most aggressive manufacturing plans for getting the most vaccine doses out there.

People may prefer the Pfizer or Moderna ones, which have shown higher efficacy in the trials.

If you get vaccinated and are able to travel, the recommendation is to still use masks and avoid gatherings, dining inside restaurants, etc.

It's still unknown if the vaccines will prevent you from becoming infected or from becoming infectious to other people.

The trails have tried to determine who gets actual symptoms from the virus, not whether it keeps you from getting infected at all. So for instance, they may not be measuring those who are asymptomatic.

 

[NoSpin]

Reading all these posts, including the latest from Joe and wco81, I can only think of that Harry Belafonte song,

“It was clear as mud,
But it covered the ground,
And the confusion
Made me brain go round”

If anyone is interested in the song, here it is -

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LvN6-RK66Bo

 

[joe]

The trails have tried to determine who gets actual symptoms from the virus, not whether it keeps you from getting infected at all. So for instance, they may not be measuring those who are asymptomatic.

I believe from what I read that the trials are indeed regularly taking blood samples from its participants, in order to check infection levels in both groups in the trial (vaccinated and placebo). This is in addition to documenting the development of symptoms. So theoretically, it looks like they will grab the asymptomatic infected.

For example (from the NIH site) :
"Volunteers must provide informed consent to participate in the trial. After providing a baseline nasopharyngeal and blood sample, participants will be assigned at random to receive either a single dose of the investigational vaccine or a saline placebo. The trial is blinded, meaning neither investigators nor participants will know who is receiving the investigational vaccine. Participants will be followed closely for safety and will be asked to provide additional blood samples at specified time points after the injection and over two years. Scientists will analyze the blood samples to detect and quantify immune responses to COVID-19. Of note, specialized assays will be used that can distinguish between immunity as a result of natural infection and vaccine-induced immunity."

What is also still a bit unclear is how good is the statistical breakdown of the volunteers being tested, meaning how much are they truly representing a typical population.

In a rare move, four manufacturers have made their trial protocols publicly available while testing is being done. This has led to questioning certain points in their methodology (such as in the British Medical Journal) :
"The first question is whether the right endpoints are being studied. Contrary to prevailing assumptions (including those of a former Food and Drug Administration commissioner8), none of the vaccine trials are designed to detect a significant reduction in hospital admissions, admission to intensive care, or death.9 Rather than studying severe disease, these mega-trials all set a primary endpoint of symptomatic covid-19 of essentially any severity: a laboratory positive result plus mild symptoms such as cough and fever count as outcome events (table 1). These studies seem designed to answer the easiest question in the least amount of time, not the most clinically relevant questions."

And apologies to @NoSpin for keeping things muddy.... . It's just that this whole health issue is quite fascinating and unprecedented in many ways. I'd much prefer to be talking about a beautiful country road in northern Italy....

 

[NoSpin]

No apologies needed Joe. It truly is a muddy and unprecedented situation. I was just trying to lighten it up.

 

[Pauline]

Well, my opinion on the vaccine has evolved. They are hoping to start vaccinating in the UK this month. They are talking about restricting restaurants and pubs to people who have been vaccinated in order to encourage vaccination. We will both get vaccinated when our turn comes up (probably). We won’t be first but, because of our ages (65 and 74), we will be in an early group. Hopefully we will be traveling this summer.

 

[wco81]

UK may approve the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine as soon as Wednesday, 12/2/20.

Rest of Europe may wait until towards the end of December.

US expected around mid December.

UK likely to be first western country to license a Covid vaccine

Regulator expected to license Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine for emergency use within days

www.theguardian.com

95% efficacy claimed but beware, in the trials that meant waiting until the test subjects actually developed symptoms.

So they're not trying to find asymptomatic infections.

Even after vaccinations, prudent to use masks, distancing and other precautions.

Also, are people more willing to get vaccinated with these first vaccines because of the reported high efficacy numbers or because they're tired of the pandemic?

Or both?

 

[joe]

Also, are people more willing to get vaccinated with these first vaccines because of the reported high efficacy numbers or because they're tired of the pandemic?

Or both?

If people are indeed showing greater willingness to get the vaccine, I think that another major factor involved is the possibility that regulation will make getting the vaccine obligatory. In this case, there will be the additional motive of linking the administration of the vaccine to the ability to get back to a "normal" routine - like travel, restaurants, shopping malls, etc. Not everyone is in a position that they can resist this type of regulation. This will not be a "fair" step on the part of the regulatory bodies at this stage of the game - with all the unknowns still with us - but most probably will be implemented where it can.

 

[wco81]

I don't see how they can check your vaccination status for restaurants and stores.

For travel, obviously they're checking your passport so there's an opportunity to do an additional check.

I'd hate to be a restaurant or store employee trying to enforce vaccination status. If you thought the arguments and even fights over masks were bad ...

 

[Pauline]

I don't see how they can check your vaccination status for restaurants and stores.

We have an app that is used to check into venues now. It will contain vaccination status, or so I’ve read.

 

[joe]

I don't see how they can check your vaccination status for restaurants and stores.

I suppose that if there is a will, there is a way.
The regulatory bodies might even use the present pressures to get back to routine, in order to gain co-operation and implement such checks in various situations (as Pauline has mentioned). Why should restaurant owners not be able to check the I.D. of a customer, if that is what they are required to do to stay in business?

I can give you an example from here. There is a resort city in the country that has asked - and received - special status to re-open its tourist sector for business. The local economy has been hit hard by the restrictions on hotels.
So now anyone wanting to enter this city has to show a document that they have have been checked for Corona in the last three days - and this includes the city residents themselves, if they leave the city for any reason at all (some medical circumstances exempted). There is a checkpoint at each of the two highway entrances to the city, drivers are stopped, and documents are shown from the car.

Having a constantly updated list of citizens' personal data - including, for example, one's vaccinations - should not be a problem, as anyone who has been stopped by a police officer probably knows. Showing a vaccination card is just as simple as showing I.D.

Not that I support any of these measures, eh?

 

[aap519]

Don't know if this is accurate, but I heard on the local news that high risk vaccination will start next week in the UK.

 

[NoSpin]

I don't see how they can check your vaccination status for restaurants and stores.

For travel, obviously they're checking your passport so there's an opportunity to do an additional check.

I'd hate to be a restaurant or store employee trying to enforce vaccination status. If you thought the arguments and even fights over masks were bad ...

It may be an additional burden on pubs, restaurants and stores, but it already exists now in the US. Pubs and restaurants have to "card" (request proof of age) persons wanting alcohol, and stores selling cigarettes and other smoking materials have to do the same.

So as Pauline indicated, you just show your app and you are good to go. Here in Massachusetts the authorities regularly send underage people into liquor stores to test if they can buy alcohol, and into stores to buy cigarettes. It is a serious offense. Establishments can have their license suspended and repeated violations can cause it to be permanently revoked.

 

[Pauline]

Don't know if this is accurate, but I heard on the local news that high risk vaccination will start next week in the UK.

Yes, that is true. It is arriving from Belgium in the next few days. This graphic shows the order people will be vaccinated. Distribution will be tricky because this is the one that has to be kept very cold and not moved often.

 

[lawrencia]

I don't see how they can check your vaccination status for restaurants and stores.

For travel, obviously they're checking your passport so there's an opportunity to do an additional check.

I'd hate to be a restaurant or store employee trying to enforce vaccination status. If you thought the arguments and even fights over masks were bad ...

I think they might get some kind of tracking (Not the scary electronic one LOL) but people can carry a kind of paper/document like they get the yellow fever vaccine before they travel to some regions in Africa.

Same could be done here but with people nowadays scared about their privacy and all I don't think they will put in an automated system.

 

[italian excursion]

Humans are so funny, debating and measuring solutions to problems we have been complaining about and can't come to agreement on. We get vaccinated all our lives and for the most part it works out well. The issue at hand, as I see it and others have noted, is the efficacy and safety of this vaccine, since it was developed so rapidly. But we also do not like being confined so we move forward. 6 of one half dozen of the other. The best part of humanity is our adaptability.....
Oye, too much coffee this a.m., sorry for the rambling.......

 

[wco81]

So vaccinations have started in the US, UK and now the EU.

Seems like the rich countries are securing their own supplies of the mRNA vaccines, which have shown the highest efficacy.

The Astra Zeneca/Oxford vaccine is expected to be approved soon in the UK, which would increase availability. But it hasn't shown as high an efficacy as the mRNA vaccines.

EU is suppose to be organizing a big vaccine purchase for all of the member nations and then allocating them but now there are reports that Germany is buying additional Pfizer vaccines.

The EU plan is reportedly to make sure vaccines made in other EU countries -- Pfizer vaccine is from a German startup -- are more evenly purchased and deployed. But the Sanofi vaccine candidate from France hasn't shown promising trial data.


For us punters, especially Americans, we may not really get to choose which vaccine to take unless one waits until summer. It seems most of the vaccines purchased by the federal govt. will be allocated as equivalents so you won't be able to choose which vaccine to get when you're getting your "free" vaccines.


So far the number of people vaccinated has been slow-going. US had a goal of vaccinating 20 million people in December but we're more at like 2 million now, almost at the end of the month./

Part of the problem is that organizing vaccinations of elderly people at nursing homes are going much slower than anticipated.

 

[Pauline]

Israel has vaccinated 500,000 people and they started Dec 20. But they have a national health system which makes it easier. Their population is 8.5 million, so this is over 5% of the country.

Israel nears 500,000 vaccinated, in new daily record; teachers to be prioritized

Health minister insists 'there'll be no shortage,' with Netanyahu said to be in contact with Pfizer to ensure stocks don't run low in January

www.timesofisrael.com

The UK has vaccinated over 500,000 people but we started a few weeks ago and our population is 66.5 million. We have a national health system that is coordinating it but they think only half the population will be vaccinated by the end of 2021.

 

[joe]

Israel has vaccinated 500,000 people and they started Dec 20. But they have a national health system which makes it easier.

FWIW : being in the age group (60+) that's eligible to receive the vaccine, I was called today by telephone and asked if I want to come in and get vaccinated. I said that I'd pass in the meantime.
I know 5 people above 60 who have already received the vaccine, and they feel completely fine. Reported cases of side effects have been very low.
They automatically get a date for the second dose, in about 3 weeks time.
Haven't heard yet of any type of "pressure" being put on people to get vaccinated ("green passports", etc.).
The goal here is to have almost half of the population vaccinated by the end of March.

 

[Allen]

Looking forward to my (‘booster’) 2nd Pfizer shot next week in hope of better protecting myself and loved ones and strangers I encounter within several weeks later.
Also rather optimistically made a (refundable) SWA reservation to FLL for end of Feb.
But no idea yet if being vaccinated will make Italy’s borders more accessible by this summer for non-essential travel.